The Daily Kos reported on a survey that shows Jon Hulburd leading Ben Quayle by two points. If that raises your eyebrows, there’s a good reason. The survey was conducted by Democrat firm Public Policy Polling, which in addition to Democrat clients, also conducts surveys for the Daily Kos, a liberal blog.
Having Democrat clients doesn’t make PPP’s numbers wrong outright, but the problem for PPP is that their numbers are increasingly suspicious and in favor of Democrats. For example, PPP is the only firm to claim that Democrat Joe Sestak is now in a dead heat with Republican Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania. Results that are questionable for good reason.
From the Weekly Standard:
Jay Coat’s advice: “Bookmark the 2008 (a great Democratic year), 2006 (a good Democratic year), and 2004 (a slightly good Republican year) exit poll sites — and before you accept any poll, cross-reference what it predicts the electorate will be with what it was in those past years. This is so important this year because I think polls are increasingly being used to move public opinion rather than to inform us about it.”
In 2004, the partisan breakdown in Pennsylvania was 41% Democrat, 39% Republican, 20% independent.
In 2006, it was 43% Democrat, 38% Republican, 19% independent.
In 2008, it was 44% Democrat, 37% Republican, 18% independent.
And what does PPP predict the partisan makeup of the electorate will be in 2010? 48% Democrat (!), 41% Republican, 11% independent.
Nate Silver, from NY Times FiveThirtyEight also isn’t buying it.
Toomey beats Sestak and Quayle trounces Hulburd.
The GOP turnout will dwarf Democrat turnout in AZ, especially when it becomes clear east of the Mississippi that Republicans have retaken control of the U.S. House. There will be even fewer compelling reasons for many Democrats to vote.